BBC reported on 13 June that Iran said a deal to end fighting would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and that the United States, Iran and mediators in Pakistan said an agreement was close to being finalised. Politico reported that a senior U.S. official said a deal was near but not final and put the chance of success in the coming days at 80% to 85%.
Those statements do not mean normal shipping has resumed. Fox News, citing CENTCOM on 13 June, reported that the Strait of Hormuz remained open for transit after U.S. forces shot down multiple Iranian one-way attack drones that CENTCOM said were attempting to strike commercial ships. CENTCOM's statement is a U.S. military account; Iranian confirmation of that incident was not located in this run.
The reported U.S. percentage is also not an outcome. It is an anonymous official's estimate, carried by Politico, rather than a signed agreement, a joint communique or a published mediator text. The BBC account gives a broader diplomatic picture, but it also frames the agreement as close to finalisation rather than final.
The UK Parliament research briefing on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis said shipping levels through the strait remained very low while a conditional ceasefire was in place and talks continued. It also said the United States had announced a counter-blockade on ships seeking to use Iranian ports and that defensive initiatives to reopen the route were under discussion.
That gap between legal or military openness and commercial normality is the central issue. A strait can be described by a military command as open for transit while shipowners, insurers and cargo customers still treat it as high risk. The parliamentary briefing's low-shipping assessment therefore qualifies the narrower CENTCOM statement about the waterway remaining open.