The immediate change is Stage 2. BHP said its total investment estimate for Jansen Stage 2 had risen to US$6.9bn, including contingencies, from the US$4.9bn estimate approved in October 2023. First production from Stage 2 is now estimated in late FY2031, after BHP had already announced in August 2025 a two-year extension that shifted the schedule from FY2029 to FY2031.
The company attributed most of the increase to additional construction hours, material quantities and escalation identified during a detailed review. It said underground construction and engineering had continued while the review took place, and that Stage 2 was 16% complete at the end of May 2026, with engineering 83% complete.
Table: BHP's Jansen project reset
| Project element | Latest BHP estimate | Previous or baseline estimate | Timing / return metric |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 capital | US$8.4bn | US$5.7bn at 2021 approval; US$7.0bn-US$7.4bn July 2025 range | First production mid-CY2027; IRR 7.9%-9.1%; payback 11-15 years |
| Stage 2 capital | US$6.9bn | US$4.9bn at 2023 approval | First production late FY2031; IRR 11%; payback 8 years |
| Impairment charge | About US$2.3bn | Not applicable | Expected in 2026 results, subject to carrying-value confirmation |
| Combined output after Stage 2 ramp-up | 8.5Mtpa | Not applicable | Around 10% of total global potash production |
Source: BHP market releases, January and June 2026.
Stage 1 had already been reset earlier this year. In January, BHP said its Stage 1 total investment estimate had increased to US$8.4bn and that first production had reverted to the original schedule of mid-calendar-year 2027. The same release said Stage 1 was 75% complete and expected to deliver about 4.15mn tonnes a year of production, with an updated internal rate of return of 7.9% to 9.1% and an expected payback period of 11 to 15 years from first production.