The British Heart Foundation said on June 29 that around 45 people a day are expected to die from cardiovascular disease linked to excess weight and obesity in England over the next decade if current trends continue. The Guardian reported the same figure and said the charity's analysis put the total at about 170,000 deaths by 2035.
The conditional language matters. BHF said its analysts used Global Burden of Disease estimates showing 16,156 cardiovascular disease deaths attributable to high BMI in England in 2023, a rate of 28 deaths per 100,000 people, and applied that rate to Office for National Statistics mid-year population projections for 2026 to 2035. The result was a forecast of roughly 16,500 to 17,100 deaths each year over the period, rising with population growth.
That is a scenario built from current rates, not a prediction that ignores policy, treatment or behaviour change. It also depends on BMI, or body mass index, a population measure of weight adjusted for height. NHS England Digital notes that BMI is widely used in the Health Survey for England, but it does not distinguish fat mass from muscle and does not capture fat distribution. The same NHS report says waist-to-height ratio can add information about central adiposity, the concentration of fat around the waist.
The underlying risk is real, even if the projection is uncertain. A 2025 review in Global Heart, drawing on Global Burden of Disease data, reported that annual cardiovascular deaths attributable to high BMI more than doubled globally between 1990 and 2021, reaching 1.9mn in 2021 and representing about 9.8% of cardiovascular deaths worldwide. That does not mean every individual with a high BMI will develop heart disease; it means that, at population level, excess weight is a measurable contributor to cardiovascular mortality.
England's baseline gives the warning its force. NHS England Digital's Health Survey for England 2024 found that 30% of adults aged 16 and over were living with obesity, while 66% were either overweight or living with obesity. The survey used measured height and weight, and reported that adult obesity had risen from 15% in 1993 to 30% in 2024, though it also cautioned that survey estimates have uncertainty.
The regional pattern makes prevention a capacity issue, not just a national average. BHF said adult obesity prevalence was highest in the North East at 36%, followed by the West Midlands at 34%, while London had the lowest rate at 21%. NHS England Digital's 2024 survey independently reported the same North East and London pattern, using age-standardised regional comparisons.